In 2019, the worldwide autonomous vehicles / driverless car market was estimated at USD 24.1 billion, and during the forecast period, 2020-2025, a CAGR of 18.06 percent is projected to be expected.
To sense their surroundings, autonomous cars use technologies such as RADAR, LIDAR, GPS, and computer vision. This article is about the Autonomous Vehicle Growth Projections. To detect the signboards or prevent a crash, sophisticated control systems built into the vehicle will perceive the sensory inputs. Over the past five years, major automotive firms, technology giants, and specialist start-ups have invested more than USD 50 billion in developing autonomous vehicle (AV) technology, with 70% of the funding coming from non-automotive industries. At the same time, public authorities are seeing that AVs bring tremendous economic and social potential benefits.
While autonomous cars at Level 4 and Level 5 (as scaled by SAE) are unlikely to achieve broad acceptance, by 2030, Level 2 and Level 3 autonomous cars with advanced driver assistance systems, such as collision detection, lane departure warning, and adaptive cruise control, can develop rapidly. If they are safe from cyber-attacks, fully autonomous cars will not hit a large customer base. If such issues are resolved. It projects that the independent car market will hit USD 60 billion by 2030.
The Semi-Autonomous Vehicle Growth Projections
According to the international automated driving standards of the SAE (Society of Automotive Engineers), cars with automation features from level 1 to level 3 have been considered in the semi-autonomous car market segment.
- For several years, Level 1 automation (also called Driver Assistance) has been available on vehicles, handling driving modes such as steering or throttle and brake, but never both.
- Level 1 cars must have the driver’s attention to take over specific duties if the vehicle is called upon—parking in assistance and adaptive cruise control. Keeping lane in help are some of the features used in level 1 vehicles.
- Level 2 automation (also known as heparan Assistance. It has a suite technology for driver assistance, including Traffic-Aware Cruise Control and lane shift Autosteer. Allowing automatic steering on undivided highways, but with speed limits.
- Conditional automation is referred to as Level 3 automation. The AV system performs all the complex driving tasks in Level 3 automation, assuming that the human driver can respond appropriately to a request to interfere.
In 2018, North America and Europe covered more than half of the global semi-autonomous car market. They were likely to continue to grow their market share over the forecast period due to the growing launch of semi-autonomous car models and the increasing growth among players in the automotive industry towards semi-autonomous vehicle systems.
The future of Autonomous Vehicles Growth Projection
According to Gartner, Inc., by 2023, worldwide net vehicle additions equipped with hardware that could allow autonomous driving without human supervision would hit 745,705 units, up from 137,129 units in 2018. Net additions will be 332.932 units in 2019. Such growth would come mainly from North America. Greater China and Western Europe have been the first countries in these regions to enact autonomous driving technologies.
The net additions reflect an annual rise in the number of vehicles fitted with autonomous driving hardware. They do not reflect physical unit sales but rather show the net change in autonomous-ready vehicles.
While the growth outlook for autonomous-driving-capable vehicles is fast, when compared to comparable consumer autonomous vehicle sales, net additions for autonomous commercial vehicles remain poor in absolute terms.
In 2020, the number of vehicles equipped with hardware that could enable autonomous driving in the consumer segment without human supervision was expected to hit 325,682. The commercial part will see just 10,590.
The competition in Landscape
Over the past three years, alliances, agreements, and investments in autonomous vehicle production have increased dramatically in the automotive industry (i.e., 2015-2017). Thus, several players in the automotive industry, from hardware to software companies, began to join the rising trend of autonomous driving technology. During the forecast period, they are likely to continue to develop, mainly due to growing funding from governments and private sectors across several countries for the promotion of autonomous vehicle driving technology.
In October 2018, Mando Company, one of the largest Tier 1 Korean manufacturer of original equipment, received a test drive license for autonomous driving vehicles in California, the United States. In the coming years, it also plans to put its safety equipment on autonomous driving vehicles effectively. The business aims at designing systems with level four autonomy for fully self-driving cars.
Present Market Overview
It is estimated that the global demand for autonomous vehicles will hit USD 65.3 billion. By the end of the evaluation period (2016-2027). Many major players are currently contributing to the growth of semi-autonomous and fully autonomous vehicles. In the R&D centers of different car companies and universities. Creative designs are in testing. By 2020-2021, the industry will see growing launches of auto-driving vehicles.
A significant factor possible for expanding the autonomous vehicle market in 2020 is government standards & regulations related to passenger safety. Also, government legislation, increased demand for developed driver-assisted vehicle systems, increased vehicle sales, and others.
Vehicle manufacturers are also innovative in evolving the vehicle safety system and the intelligent transport system with modern technologies.
Analysis in COVID-19
The overall automotive industry is affecting by COVID 19. It is Prompting automakers to limit production at their manufacturing plants. In some places, the disruption caused by the outbreak at key suppliers forced different passenger car brands to reduce output. To minimize the effect, they worked very intensively on countermeasures and alternatives. However, from the offline lead generation model to online sales, autonomous vehicle manufacturers and dealers have changed their focus. This effort to engage digital platforms with prospective customers is proving to be a game-changer for business development. The demand is returning to normal amid the coronavirus crisis. Subsequently, the need for autonomous vehicles is increasingly growing too.
Autonomous Vehicles growth projections depend on the customer’s perception.
A significant impediment to the widespread implementation of autonomous vehicles is vehicle-human handover safety issues. At present, algorithms for independent vehicle vision are still significantly less efficient than human drivers.
The production of autonomous vehicle perception systems has earned a large amount of investment. Mr. Davenport said, “With more than 50 companies racing to develop. A system that is safe enough for commercial use”. Gartner estimates that it will take until 2025 until these devices show skills. That are greater than human drivers in order of magnitude.
Although most units produces worldwide are currently entirely manual driver-operating vehicles (SAE Level 0). This remains the only level of autonomy that will decline over the forecast period. This decline is due to the dedication of the automotive industry to advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS). Developments in the fields of software, cost-effectiveness and size, customer preference, and government regulation. As a result, by 2024, vehicles with a certain degree of automation (SAE levels 1-5). They will account for more than 50% of all vehicles produced.